Investment Strategy
The core of our investment management strategy is to be long-term "inference readers." What are inference readers? We read, think, talk to each other, and analyze data. Then we read, think and talk some more, all the time looking for insights that are not obvious, looking for trends and clues to changes that are likely to happen, and striving to uncover these insights, trends and clues before the "herd" discovers what is happening. It means buying an oil refinery stock a year or more before oil refineries are viewed as profitable enterprises. Inference reading - looking for patterns and connecting the dots before others. That's what we do. We believe that extensive information analysis is a relatively uncrowded field, and that is why our intellectually independent research has enabled us to outperform relevant market indices over time.
Only through intellectual independence can an investor benefit from selections not already popular on Wall Street, and so generate performance better than average over time. We utilize information from AFGView, Bloomberg, and EDGAR as principal resources for our research, and reject any one-valuation-fits-all-stocks analytical approach. Our strategy is to examine individual companies, searching for disconnects between stock price and business fundamentals. We have no magic bullet for analyzing every company, because no single valuation method fits all stocks. Assets can be particularly important for energy companies; return on assets and asset risk exposure especially relevant for financial companies; revenue growth critical for technology and health care companies; and profit margins telling for technology companies. Market share can be important for food and beverage companies, yet barely relevant for a retailer. Part of the careful analysis of a company relates to operating efficiencies and competitive advantages. We strive to gauge how lasting a company's comparative advantage (cost structure, distribution system, brand recognition, operational scale, intellectual property) is likely to be, because we have found that this point predicts sustainable, superior long-term stock performance.
We are not interested in chasing transient information for short-term action, but instead focus on extensive analysis of data for long-term impact. We maintain analytical flexibility because our job is to make money for clients under varying circumstances. Through independent research, we aspire to minimize the likelihood of severe losses, to improve the opportunity to realize substantial (and sustainable) gains, and to limit risk associated with valuing stocks based on optimistic expectations. In a nutshell: We seek to preserve capital and accumulate wealth without taking unnecessary risks.
We diversify to the extent possible without being tied to any formula. For example, we won't buy tech stocks just to say we are diversified. If we believe a stock's risk of decline is substantial we won't invest, because the expectation of losing money is not part of our investment philosophy. Sometimes we hold more cash than we would prefer. But we will invest the cash only when purchases can be made at prices that offer us the prospect of a reasonable return on our investment.
If our only goal were relative return, we would always be as close to 100% invested as possible. But for some periods of time relative return is not a very attractive goal. If our goal is absolute return, however, being cautious when buying makes a lot of sense - we can still make good money by being less than 100% invested and holding some cash.
A continuing part of our investment strategy is based on how we started - we invest our own assets with our clients' - so we care about more than just relative return. Over time, our patience with cash has resulted in more favorable management of risk and reward. We invest cash cautiously, stock by stock, based on reasonable judgments and a concern for capital preservation. Investing is part art and part science. It is a craft business, a brainpower business, where the human element cannot be easily replicated. The human element, our colleagues who comprise Symons Capital Management, can add real value through a well developed, disciplined investment strategy founded on what can variously be called inference reading, extensive information analysis or intellectually independent research. This work is both quantitatively and qualitatively intensive, but well worth the effort.
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